The bear model – projecting a seasonal advance into Q2 followed by a round of marginally lower lows into late 2026, early 2027 – is now void. That leaves only two bullish models. The least bullish, a continued retracement of the drop from the 2022 highs. The alternative, a run to new all times highs. While we finally have ‘regime change’ when it comes to the medium/long term picture, we will be on the lookout for signs of short term trouble …beware any de-escalatory headlines that could lead to a sudden price vacuum … the longs are stacking up.
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