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The superficial exogenous view of market price action is that OPEC news causes price trends. A closer look reveals compelling evidence for an endogenous view of market price action. In the endogenous price trends arise from the dynamic nature of the markets themselves. No external stimulus is needed to induce price trends, and the price trends are cyclical in nature. This brief piece looks at this exogenous versus endogenous issue in terms of OPEC and the 15 year commodity cycle.
Negative Interest rates on government bonds and central bank deposits can strike one as an 'Alice in Wonderland' through the looking glass degree tear in the financial space-time continuum. It appears to stand 5,000 years of interest rate history on its head. So why the tremendous investor demand for negative rates? This report places negative interest rates in the context of long term historical trends - and the post 1999 golden age of the speculative bubble. I employ Adrian Brody's role in the 2010 film 'Wrecked' as a parable to help flesh out the issues.
Great enough fear creates the thing being feared. This is an age old truth of human nature. And it is a reality alive and well in today's financial markets. In this piece I explore the metaphysical basis of central bank intervention. And this leads me to explore the case for deflation as the Fed's own self created monster.